Nikon always keeps it release schedule strictly confidential, but based on past experience, below are our predictions for 2009. Note the slow economy and declining sales could slow down Nikons release schedule, but they are also in a battle for market share with Canon, which puts pressure on them in the other direction (The 50D hasn't exactly set the world alight, but the 5D Mark II is getting an awful lot of attention):
Pro Bodies:
Nikon D3
The D3 will turn 2 years old before the end of the year, but it's still the low light king (and based on past experience it's usually 3-4 years between major pro body updates). Street prices for the D3 have dropped to the $4k mark, so Nikon needs to do something to get the price point back up to around the $5k mark, and there is room to improve the D3. We are predicting a D3h (or maybe D3s) release, which will be a D3 with the following features:
Nikon D3x
Other than firmware releases, we expect this camera to remain unchanged, albeit with a steady price drop throughout the year.
Prosumer Bodies:
Nikon D400
The D300 hits its second birthday towards the end of 2009, before it hits its second birthday we expect the D400 to be released. We expect the following:
Nikon D700x/Nikon D800
Based on recent history, Nikon puts new sensors into the highest end body first, then that sensor appears in the next level down body somewhere around 9 months later, give or take a couple of months. That would imply the D3x sensor would appear in a D700 style body (D700x or D800) sometime during the summer of 2009. There is also severe pressure from Sony (with the A900) and Canon (with the 5D Mark II) in this mid range full frame space, so bringing a competitive product to market here would have a very strong appeal. However, this leads to a couple of fundamental issues:
Consumer Models:
Nikon D40 Replacement
We expect to see this early in 2009, most likely with the 10.2mp sensor from the D200/D80/D60 lines.
Nikon D60 Replacement
A replacement for the Nikon D60 may be possible towards the end of 2009, using the sensor out of the D90, perhaps with video.
Nikon D90 Update
A Nikon D90 update is possible in the second half of the year - perhaps called the D90s, basically the same camera, but with a significantly improved video feature set (autofocus, improved exposure controls, perhaps even 1080p). This would also pave the way for a D60 with 720p video.
Lenses:
This one is tougher to predict, but:
70-200 f2.8 VR Update
This lens performs exceptionally well on DX and Film cameras, but may users have reported edge softness problems on FX. Nikons pro zooms are typically updated every six years or so, so this lens is due. With the D3x getting out there and pushing the edge performances of lenses further than the D3 can, this makes getting a new version of this lens out even more important.
85 f1.4 Updated with AF-S
A logical choice to be upgraded next given the 50mm f1.4 AF-S that has just been released.
80-400mm Updated with AF-S
This amazingly versatile lens is in a price range where it may appeal to D90 and even D60 owners, plus it has a reputation as being slow to focus, so would be a good candidate.
With a slow economy, updating more obscure lenses that won't be as profitable makes less sense than it did in prior years. Nikon will likely chose lenses that either (a) will sell in larger quantities to help recover the design/retooling costs faster, or (b) that will support sales of the D3x or other key bodies. If you are charging $8k for the body, you better have the lenses available to back them up.
Overall, given the economy, we would expect to see fewer lenses released in 2009 than 2008, but suspect Nikon will keep their body development on track for competitive reasons. We'll check back later in the year to see how we did.
Pro Bodies:
Nikon D3
The D3 will turn 2 years old before the end of the year, but it's still the low light king (and based on past experience it's usually 3-4 years between major pro body updates). Street prices for the D3 have dropped to the $4k mark, so Nikon needs to do something to get the price point back up to around the $5k mark, and there is room to improve the D3. We are predicting a D3h (or maybe D3s) release, which will be a D3 with the following features:
- The 2Gb buffer upgrade that you can currently get for the D3 will be standard.
- The newer, improved EXPEED processors from the D3x may yield a small IQ improvement as well as slightly extending the already impressive battery life.
- Since the D3 is primarily a photojournalists tool, the ability to capture video (1080p) would be extremely useful in the field, however that means adding video encoding hardware and microphones, so that may be delayed until the D4. It will be a big selling point to a certain segment of the pro market if Nikon can add it in the update.
- If Video is included, it may also bring a slightly improved sensor (as it did when the D90 was launched based on the D300 sensor)
- Misc. minor features/tweaks.
- Priced at $5k, maybe $5.5k if video is included.
Nikon D3x
Other than firmware releases, we expect this camera to remain unchanged, albeit with a steady price drop throughout the year.
Prosumer Bodies:
Nikon D400
The D300 hits its second birthday towards the end of 2009, before it hits its second birthday we expect the D400 to be released. We expect the following:
- Slight increase in megapixels - perhaps 14mp with the same or slightly better ISO capabilities than the D300.
- Better dynamic range than the D300 (since the D90 has shown they can improve it, add another years sensor development into the equation).
- Video is a must, probably at 1080p.
- What we'd like: Retain compatibility with the MB-D10, and please put in a bigger buffer - this is the Nikon DSLR of choice for most pro telephoto users, the bigger buffer would be really useful.
- Price has to be under $2k.
Nikon D700x/Nikon D800
Based on recent history, Nikon puts new sensors into the highest end body first, then that sensor appears in the next level down body somewhere around 9 months later, give or take a couple of months. That would imply the D3x sensor would appear in a D700 style body (D700x or D800) sometime during the summer of 2009. There is also severe pressure from Sony (with the A900) and Canon (with the 5D Mark II) in this mid range full frame space, so bringing a competitive product to market here would have a very strong appeal. However, this leads to a couple of fundamental issues:
- The D3x is little more than a D3 with a new sensor, yet at current street prices it costs almost $4k more, that's an awful lot of premium for a sensor. Applying the same logic to the new camera, if they price it with a similar margin above the D700, that would put it around $6k, which would severely limit their market and would not be in the same market space as Canon and Sony's offerings. Realistically, to be a competitor, the camera has to be priced not that far above the Canon and Sony - somewhere in the $3,000 to $3,500 range. If they price it at $4k, then they will lose a lot of the potential market.
- If they do price it at $4k or below, that really hits the D3x (who needs weather sealing and extended battery life in the studio?)
- To add Video or not to add Video. To compete with Canon and gain market share, they need to add video. But if they add video, that'll hit the D3x with it's premium price even harder.
Consumer Models:
Nikon D40 Replacement
We expect to see this early in 2009, most likely with the 10.2mp sensor from the D200/D80/D60 lines.
Nikon D60 Replacement
A replacement for the Nikon D60 may be possible towards the end of 2009, using the sensor out of the D90, perhaps with video.
Nikon D90 Update
A Nikon D90 update is possible in the second half of the year - perhaps called the D90s, basically the same camera, but with a significantly improved video feature set (autofocus, improved exposure controls, perhaps even 1080p). This would also pave the way for a D60 with 720p video.
Lenses:
This one is tougher to predict, but:
70-200 f2.8 VR Update
This lens performs exceptionally well on DX and Film cameras, but may users have reported edge softness problems on FX. Nikons pro zooms are typically updated every six years or so, so this lens is due. With the D3x getting out there and pushing the edge performances of lenses further than the D3 can, this makes getting a new version of this lens out even more important.
85 f1.4 Updated with AF-S
A logical choice to be upgraded next given the 50mm f1.4 AF-S that has just been released.
80-400mm Updated with AF-S
This amazingly versatile lens is in a price range where it may appeal to D90 and even D60 owners, plus it has a reputation as being slow to focus, so would be a good candidate.
With a slow economy, updating more obscure lenses that won't be as profitable makes less sense than it did in prior years. Nikon will likely chose lenses that either (a) will sell in larger quantities to help recover the design/retooling costs faster, or (b) that will support sales of the D3x or other key bodies. If you are charging $8k for the body, you better have the lenses available to back them up.
Overall, given the economy, we would expect to see fewer lenses released in 2009 than 2008, but suspect Nikon will keep their body development on track for competitive reasons. We'll check back later in the year to see how we did.
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